Wednesday, January 18, 2006

Riesgos 2006

He aquí una lista de riesgos para que los tengan en mente en la medida que nos adentramos en el nuevo año (me fue más fácil escribirlos en inglés):
  • Major energy shock as oil, again, approaches record levels (WTI @ $100 in the cards?)
  • Federal Reserve and other Central Banks overshoot tight monetary policy (watch the Yield Curve)
  • US economic slowdown affects Asian/China economic growth, by extension LATAM
  • China allows major currency appreciation impacting prices of its exports and thus global inflationary pressures
  • US fiscal / current account worsens, foreign financing slows down considerably
  • Rising protectionism in industrialized economies (US & Europe)
  • Major us corporation files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy reeling capital markets (General Motors?)
  • Emerging market debt bubble bursts, considerably increasing cost of financing
  • Real Estate market global bubble bursts
  • Outbreak of Avian Flu pandemic
  • Chavez Axis extends further to Chile, Peru and even Mexico (now is Bolivia, Brazil, Argentina and of course Cuba)
  • Iran very SERIOUS nuclear/oil cut off threat - MAJOR middle east conflict (US gets dragged through IRAQ)

Como ven el 2006 promete ser un año sumamente interesante trás la bonanza económica y de liquidez de los últimos tres años. ... enjoy the ride!